A potential shutdown of Russian oil supplies via the Friendship pipeline could significantly impact Hungarian oil giant MOL, according to Erste Bank.

Tamás Pletser, an oil and gas analyst, believes that cutting off Russian oil would reduce MOL's annual adjusted earnings (EBITDA) from over USD 3 billion to between USD 2 billion to 2.4 billion. 

This could be attributed to the cheaper cost of Russian oil and the potential increase in transportation costs if oil is sourced via the Adriatic Sea instead of the Friendship pipeline.

MOL has been preparing for years to stop oil deliveries through the Friendship pipeline and has been working to secure alternative supplies. The company currently buys 11 million tons of Russian oil annually but has the capacity to supply 8 million tons from the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).

By 2026, MOL will have completed projects to ensure it can be fully supplied from the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

Last Friday, Ukrainian officials initially announced that Ukraine would halt the operation of the Friendship oil pipeline starting January 1, 2025. 

However, they later clarified that Ukraine would honor its contractual obligations for oil transit until the end of 2029.