Russia will need at least a decade to significantly increase natural gas exports to China following a newly announced pipeline memorandum, industry sources familiar with the matter told The Associated Press.

The timeline underscores the lengthy process facing Moscow as it attempts to redirect its vast gas reserves toward Asia, replacing its former largest customer, Europe, following the collapse of trade after Western sanctions were imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Alexei Miller, CEO of Russian gas giant Gazprom, announced last month that the company had signed a "legally binding memorandum" with China regarding the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline during President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Beijing.

The proposed pipeline, which is expected to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually from Russia's Arctic Yamal region through Mongolia—comparable to the now-damaged Nord Stream pipeline to Germany—has not previously had a detailed timeline reported.

Despite the recent memorandum, several key elements of the deal remain unresolved after years of negotiation, including the all-important pricing, investment terms, and the official start date for deliveries, according to the sources.

Two industry insiders indicated that even if a final agreement is reached next year, it would take roughly five years to complete pipeline construction and commence deliveries. They estimate another five years would be needed to boost supplies to a significant capacity.

One source familiar with Gazprom’s internal expectations said the company does not anticipate the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to reach even half of its full capacity before 2034–2035, assuming deliveries start after 2031. 

Analysts at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies backed this assessment in a recent report, suggesting first supply could feasibly begin by the end of 2030 or 2031, with "a substantial part of the ramp-up achieved by Jan. 1, 2035."

Russia began pumping gas to China via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline in late 2019, and is set to reach its planned annual capacity of 38 bcm this year. In addition to that, China has agreed to a slight expansion of that route and a separate 2 bcm annual supply via the Far Eastern route starting in 2027.

China, however, imports gas from multiple sources, including Turkmenistan and sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG). Russia currently supplies approximately 22% of China's gas imports this year.